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<p>1.已經(jīng)脫離危險(xiǎn)區(qū)</p><p>大家只要有心就知道之前的三金已經(jīng)有再次月線的可能，一旦跌破必然引發(fā)股災(zāi)，市場(chǎng)信心一破，必然導(dǎo)致熊市加速，2019.2－3的底倉(cāng)也會(huì)被擊穿，必然要拉升危險(xiǎn)區(qū)。</p><p>2.階段性歷史任務(wù)完成</p><p>一個(gè)是科創(chuàng)板中芯國(guó)際上市，下周寒武紀(jì)上市，市場(chǎng)有足夠的錢，科創(chuàng)板財(cái)富效應(yīng)展現(xiàn)，吸引了大批資金接飛刀。</p><p>一個(gè)是創(chuàng)業(yè)板注冊(cè)制逐步落地已經(jīng)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)開始接受注冊(cè)制落地的這一偉大歷史進(jìn)程。</p><blockquote class="imghidden"><p>3.大量來歷不明資金勸退</p><p>這里主要是信貸資金違規(guī)入市，杠桿上升，配資死灰復(fù)燃，有必要對(duì)這些不理智的投資者勸退。</p><p>同時(shí)加速消滅散戶，培育大機(jī)構(gòu)介入市場(chǎng)。</p><p>4.大量etf基金宣傳</p><p>在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)消滅散戶，然后引入宣傳資金，從而培育壯大非銀行類金融機(jī)構(gòu)，從而培育長(zhǎng)線資金建設(shè)，為我國(guó)的牛市的，長(zhǎng)牛奠定堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。</p><p>對(duì)科創(chuàng)板，創(chuàng)業(yè)板設(shè)置教育背景，投資背景以及資金門檻和防火墻，降低散戶投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，同時(shí)加大對(duì)于退市處理，造假違約成本。縮小散戶投資標(biāo)的，引導(dǎo)散戶通過基金來投資，從而減少投資者的直接損失，遇到極端行情的嚴(yán)重?fù)p失。</p><p>5.提前應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)外空頭暴跌危機(jī)</p><p>先手布局，為美股暴跌傳導(dǎo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)機(jī)制進(jìn)行提前泄洪，讓部分投資者看空，退出市場(chǎng)，同時(shí)對(duì)于留在股市的執(zhí)著者進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)教育。</p><p>同時(shí)穩(wěn)定未來走勢(shì)，形成新底部，雙底奠定堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。</p><p>6.給部分資金出逃</p><p>連日大漲需要一個(gè)利潤(rùn)兌現(xiàn)的出口，加之預(yù)計(jì)美股大跌，需要時(shí)間窗口給以逃命的機(jī)會(huì)。但是在形態(tài)上又出現(xiàn)了回踩，回調(diào)的跡象，自然會(huì)迷惑一大批人，為資金跑路贏得時(shí)間。</p></p></blockquote> </div> <div id="nzpgjxw" class="mt24 mb12"> <div id="oemnunz" class="post-taglist d-flex gs4 gsy fd-column"> <div id="1fra3hj" class="d-flex ps-relative"> </div> </div> </div> <div id="usab57o" class="post-signature owner flex--item"> <div id="zxrskak" class="user-info "> <div id="vpcmih2" class="user-gravatar32"> <div id="jhhdxjz" class="gravatar-wrapper-32"> <img src="/images/face/431.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> </div> <div id="zygxqjr" class="user-details"> <a>阿禾330402</a> <div id="bar1232" class="-flair"> <span id="ezyyegw" class="reputation-score" title="聲譽(yù)分?jǐn)?shù) ">175</span> </div> </div> </div> <div id="lv2f11w" class="js-new-contributor-indicator ps-relative"> <div id="2xblvk1" class="new-contributor-indicator fc-medium py6 px8 bbr-sm"> <span id="o8uecyj" class="js-new-contributor-label"> <svg class="svg-icon iconWave" width="18" height="18"> <path d="M10.7 17c-2.3 0-3.9-2.05-5.07-3.54l-.49-.6c-.67-.8-1.59-1.63-2.4-2.36A10.91 10.91 0 011.1 8.87a.79.79 0 01-.09-.56c.04-.19.14-.34.27-.4.14-.07.29-.1.45-.1.35 0 .67.18.87.34l3.5 2.75c.04.03.1.03.13 0a.09.09 0 00.02-.13l-.02-.02c-.57-.8-3.42-4.77-3.71-5.15-.21-.27-.3-.58-.24-.84.05-.2.2-.37.4-.48.18-.09.35-.13.52-.13.44 0 .76.28.96.51l3.6 4.42c.04.04.07.06.14.02.05-.02.06-.07.03-.12L4.41 2.96a.94.94 0 01-.1-.73.92.92 0 0 1 .47-.57 1.06 1.06 0 0 1 1.4.39l3.8 6.14c.03.04.07.07.14.04.04-.03.06-.07.04-.13A153.8 153.8 0 008.1 2.54c-.31-.68-.2-1.14.36-1.42.52-.27 1.14-.07 1.47.48l3.69 8.3c.02.04.05.05.1.06a.1.1 0 00.09-.07l.66-2.28c.1-.3.31-.56.62-.72.3-.15.65-.18.98-.1.7.2 1.09.87.89 1.52-.1.37-.46 1.73-.99 3.43l-.1.33c-.58 1.86-1.03 3.33-3.11 4.4-.7.35-1.38.53-2.05.53z" fill="#FFC166"></path> <path d="M14 .37a.5.5 0 00-.88.45l1.96 3.9a.5.5 0 00.9-.45L14 .37zm-1.17 2.17a.5.5 0 00-.91.42l.84 1.87a.5.5 0 10.91-.41l-.84-1.88zm-10.6 9.74a.5.5 0 01.7-.02l1.7 1.6a.5.5 0 01-.7.72l-1.68-1.6a.5.5 0 01-.02-.7zm-1.39.98a.5.5 0 10-.68.73l3.03 2.84a.5.5 0 00.68-.73L.84 13.26z" opacity=".4"></path> </svg> 最佳貢獻(xiàn)者</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="cehyiwd" id="answers"> <div class="gamvakb" id="answers-header"> <div id="qlbtusm" class="answers-subheader d-flex ai-center mb8"> <div id="z8twlrd" class="flex--item"> <div id="rybcukr" class=" d-flex s-btn-group js-filter-btn"> <a class="youarehere is-selected flex--item s-btn s-btn__muted s-btn__outlined">最新</a> <a class="youarehere is-selected flex--item s-btn s-btn__muted s-btn__outlined">投票</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="jzclmss" class="answer"> <div id="6upcr7e" class="post-layout"> <div id="jy8phfb" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="dp3o1ym" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="1oihxi6" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">2</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowDownLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 10h32L18 26 2 10z"></path> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div id="nx6tk7l" class="answercell post-layout--right"> <div id="hjaa7un" class="s-prose js-post-body"> <p><p>A股為什么降溫，A股為什么選擇在3450點(diǎn)的附近降溫？</p><p>這些都是有原因的。</p><p>第一，對(duì)于A股來說，前期的兩個(gè)階段性的阻力位置是3288點(diǎn)和3587點(diǎn)。</p><p>如果A股強(qiáng)勢(shì)突破了這兩個(gè)階段性的高點(diǎn)，那么牛市的做多情緒就會(huì)被激發(fā)，這個(gè)時(shí)候，再去降溫，效果會(huì)非常低，甚至并沒有什么用。</p><p><strong><u>就像一輛貨車開起來了，急剎車是沒用的。所以，管理層選擇了在突破3288點(diǎn)之后，在突破3587點(diǎn)之前降溫，否則來不及。</u></strong></p><blockquote class="imghidden"><p>第二，為什么要降溫呢？有因?yàn)榕Ｊ凶叩奶炝恕?/p><p>如果不降溫，給予一個(gè)緩沖，一定是瘋狂的牛市，可能不到1年左右的時(shí)間，這輪牛市又是趕頂，出現(xiàn)泡沫而結(jié)束。</p><p>但是，如今的注冊(cè)制改革下，大量的企業(yè)還排著隊(duì)上市呢！需要更多的好公司，所以，管理層希望是一頭慢牛，而不是瘋牛。</p><p><strong><u>因此，未來這種不間斷的降溫可能還是會(huì)發(fā)生的。</u></strong></p><p>第三，清理配資和杠桿！‘</p><p>2015年的牛市股災(zāi)，許多老股民歷歷在目，不僅對(duì)于散戶傷害很大，對(duì)于許多的機(jī)構(gòu)，基金，私募，甚至整個(gè)市場(chǎng)都是損失慘重的。</p><p>所以，絕對(duì)是不允許重蹈覆轍的，那么，配資和杠桿就不允許瘋狂進(jìn)入股市。而清理配資和杠桿最好的方法就是“大跌”！</p><p><strong><u>不要試圖去講道理，因?yàn)闆]用，大跌就是最好的清理方式！所以，這一輪牛市里，誰的杠桿比重越大，越高，誰“死”的越慘。</u></strong></p><p>但是，我們看到！</p><p>當(dāng)管理層降溫導(dǎo)致股市大跌之后，立馬在周末給出了兩個(gè)重大的利好，刺激金融股市上漲。</p><p>歷史上，保險(xiǎn)投資比例上調(diào)都是一個(gè)重大的利好，并且在許多條件支撐下可以確認(rèn)牛市。</p><p>所以，前期的大跌是降溫，而周末的利好是升溫，不能明哲告訴你這里是牛市，只能“偷偷”地暗示給你看了。</p><p>如果到現(xiàn)在，大家還不知道這里是牛市的話。</p><p>那么很有可能就是在牛市的中前期踏空，在中后期接盤了。股市就是這樣，先知先覺者吃肉，后知后覺者喝湯，不知不覺者買單！</p><p>記住，牛市本來就不是只漲不跌的，大漲，大跌才是牛市里正常的表現(xiàn)。</p><p>斗�？催^嗎？有見過只跑，不跳，不蹬腿的瘋牛嗎？</p><hr/><p>關(guān)注張大仙，投資不迷路！如果你覺得這篇回答對(duì)你有幫助，請(qǐng)記得點(diǎn)贊支持哦。</p><p><br/></p></p></p></blockquote></div> <div id="gr7eqxg" class="mt24"> <div id="2kawxk2" class="user-info "> <div id="7jn2cvh" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/713.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="s83o7bu" class="user-details"> <a>你不來時(shí)我不孤</a> <div id="pwh7fdd" class="-flair"> <span id="vdxceck" class="reputation-score">155贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="gjaiprp" class="answer"> <div id="jq6qb2r" class="post-layout"> <div id="uckcdrr" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="szrjhrz" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="e73jm2o" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">3</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> 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<p>最近幾天以來，大盤股指改變了瘋狂的攻擊狀態(tài)，是進(jìn)入了深度的調(diào)整階段，股指連續(xù)性的大幅調(diào)整，讓很多股民非常不適應(yīng)，甚至很多短線交易的股民散戶在這短短的幾天內(nèi)就回吐了所有的收益，并且甚至有一些追高交易者虧損了本金，那么A股突然急速的降溫，原因?yàn)楹危?/p><p>第一方面原因，漲出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。大盤股指前一段時(shí)間確實(shí)是漲幅太大了，尤其是金融權(quán)重這樣的大象起舞都實(shí)現(xiàn)了連續(xù)性的拉升，可見市場(chǎng)的瘋狂狀態(tài)，即便是在牛市行情中，也很少見到這樣的瘋狂拉升，所以說大盤股指在短期內(nèi)積累了大量的獲利盤，一旦指數(shù)和結(jié)構(gòu)處于高位，必然會(huì)引發(fā)快速的獲利兌現(xiàn)，從而導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)急速的降溫。</p><p>第二方面原因，管理層對(duì)于A股市場(chǎng)的走勢(shì)有一定的調(diào)控手段，對(duì)于市場(chǎng)的瘋狂狀態(tài)連續(xù)的出組合拳降溫，比如嚴(yán)查配資，規(guī)范交易行為等等，這些政策的出臺(tái)對(duì)于瘋狂的市場(chǎng)都形成了一定的影響，也在間接的給市場(chǎng)降溫。</p><p>第三個(gè)方面原因，外圍環(huán)境整體并不容樂觀，無論是地區(qū)形勢(shì)還是國(guó)際環(huán)境，對(duì)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展都存在著重大的影響，也存在著極大的不確定性，這種不確定性在股指高位的時(shí)候很容易發(fā)酵，從而形成消息的傳導(dǎo)壓力，最終演變成市場(chǎng)的寬幅波動(dòng)。</p><p>總之，A股市場(chǎng)的急速降溫是綜合方面的原因，俺個(gè)人認(rèn)為核心在于漲幅在短期內(nèi)過高和過快，需要經(jīng)過充分的調(diào)整之后才能夠繼續(xù)攻擊。</p><blockquote class="imghidden"><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">感謝評(píng)論點(diǎn)贊，歡迎留言交流，如果感興趣點(diǎn)個(gè)關(guān)注，分享更多市場(chǎng)觀點(diǎn)。</span></p></p></blockquote></div> <div id="d2ctunh" class="mt24"> <div id="prib1a1" class="user-info "> <div id="e7qnu2g" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/650.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="pxotudi" class="user-details"> <a>user7804461914590</a> <div id="7t3flob" class="-flair"> <span id="vmos3mf" class="reputation-score">243贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="e8g7f1b" class="answer"> <div id="qo2op6j" class="post-layout"> <div id="8b3tvce" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="oevdsm7" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="nl3y5lq" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">4</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowDownLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 10h32L18 26 2 10z"></path> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div id="ouugh22" class="answercell post-layout--right"> <div id="xfwfgzg" class="s-prose js-post-body"> <p>A股從人氣鼎沸的百股漲停到指數(shù)下挫百股跌停也就是幾天時(shí)間，投資者就從天堂到地獄了，這種一驚一乍讓投資者情何以堪。</p><p>A股是一個(gè)非理性市場(chǎng)，專家媒體意見對(duì)立，走兩個(gè)極端，一種是整天各種牛市不離口，千方百計(jì)營(yíng)造牛市氛圍，另一種是整天泡沫不離口，見不得股市上漲，一漲就擔(dān)憂泡沫膨脹，呼吁打壓股市。</p><p>本領(lǐng)金融地產(chǎn)大漲以前，市場(chǎng)就有一種聲音不斷發(fā)酵，A股是價(jià)值洼地，資金避風(fēng)港，十年黃金牛市已開啟，慢牛大國(guó)牛改革牛愛過牛已經(jīng)確立，但實(shí)際上創(chuàng)業(yè)板市盈率已經(jīng)達(dá)到百倍，哪里有價(jià)值洼地的跡象，科技股醫(yī)藥醫(yī)療器械市盈率過百倍并不高幾百倍上千倍也為數(shù)不少。</p><p>可是資金異軍突起強(qiáng)勢(shì)介入保險(xiǎn)券商和銀行地產(chǎn)，指數(shù)大漲，進(jìn)一步推升了科技股和醫(yī)藥醫(yī)療器械股價(jià)和估值水平，泡沫是客觀存在的。</p><p>這引起市場(chǎng)部分專家警覺，呼吁加大IPO節(jié)奏和融資規(guī)模，國(guó)家隊(duì)拋售股票，遏制銀行資金和杠桿資金進(jìn)入股市，這會(huì)引發(fā)市場(chǎng)一定的謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，監(jiān)管也是針對(duì)場(chǎng)外配資資金和銀行資金進(jìn)入股市加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管，美國(guó)更是唯恐天下不亂，再度滋生事端打壓華為，引發(fā)芯片半導(dǎo)體板塊下跌，進(jìn)一步打壓人氣，市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入了新的調(diào)整。</p><blockquote class="imghidden"><p>從股市本身來看，一種十幾家IPO和重要股東減持3000億元，也對(duì)投資者做多產(chǎn)生壓制。</p><p>一個(gè)市場(chǎng)本身不具備牛市條件，偏要發(fā)動(dòng)牛市，又遭遇輿論政策利空打壓，股市焉能不跌。</p><p>這種過山車行情，最傷害的就是新韭菜。</p></p></blockquote></div> <div id="qckfyof" class="mt24"> <div id="3wwfl6c" class="user-info "> <div id="z6k2vtb" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/530.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="7snfb7c" class="user-details"> <a>蘇教版數(shù)學(xué)</a> <div id="vudzjup" class="-flair"> <span id="8iek3df" class="reputation-score">409贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="tjs8ku5" class="answer"> <div id="zys2pnv" class="post-layout"> <div id="e2ttlr7" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="bow7t1y" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="imds1l2" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">5</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowDownLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 10h32L18 26 2 10z"></path> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div id="7aiorcr" class="answercell post-layout--right"> <div id="wjqax6w" class="s-prose js-post-body"> <p>A股連續(xù)兩周大漲后，出現(xiàn)較大幅度的調(diào)整，上證指數(shù)由3400點(diǎn)一線下探到3200點(diǎn)左右，下跌幅度5%，究其原因，個(gè)人認(rèn)為有兩點(diǎn):</p><h1>第一、經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇超預(yù)期，下半年是否能夠繼續(xù)保持寬松的貨幣政策存疑</h1><p>股市的上漲，最直接的動(dòng)力就是資金推動(dòng)，市場(chǎng)大量的資金進(jìn)入股市，推動(dòng)股市上行；今年一季度GDP同比去年下降6.8%，經(jīng)濟(jì)堪憂，所以上半年央行貨幣政策非常寬松，頻繁降息的同時(shí)，通過降準(zhǔn)、逆回購(gòu)和MLF操作向市場(chǎng)投放貨幣，所以一季度市場(chǎng)資金面是相當(dāng)寬松的；</p><p>而二季度GDP已經(jīng)由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正，同比去年增長(zhǎng)3.2%，在疫情影響下，可以說這一數(shù)據(jù)還是超出了大部分人的預(yù)期，經(jīng)濟(jì)一旦持續(xù)向好，寬松的貨幣政策可能存在收緊的預(yù)期，因?yàn)樨泿耪咴诳紤]經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)，還需要兼顧穩(wěn)定物價(jià)、穩(wěn)定總體債務(wù)水平、穩(wěn)定樓市和股市等多方面的考量；若繼續(xù)降息和放水，社會(huì)總體債務(wù)水平將持續(xù)攀升，另外大類資產(chǎn)比如房產(chǎn)、股票等，將會(huì)由于資金推動(dòng)，出現(xiàn)非理性炒作；所以在經(jīng)濟(jì)向好的前提下，為了不出現(xiàn)債務(wù)危機(jī)和資產(chǎn)泡沫等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，下半年資金面是否將繼續(xù)維持寬松政策存疑；</p><p>一旦資金面收緊，導(dǎo)致股市資金流出，下半年股市上漲將會(huì)比較艱難；</p><h1>第二、管理層一直主張的是慢牛、健康牛，過去兩周的大幅快速上漲，偏離了管理層的政策軌道</h1><p>過去兩周時(shí)間，股市大幅上漲，大量資金涌入股市，成交量與成交額節(jié)節(jié)攀升，無疑存在過熱的跡象；從管理層近期嚴(yán)查場(chǎng)外配資、金融機(jī)構(gòu)違規(guī)配資，以及社保等國(guó)家隊(duì)基金開始減持，可以一定程度上窺得管理層的政策意圖，拒絕瘋牛和杠桿牛，支持慢牛和健康牛，股市平穩(wěn)上漲才是目前經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下所應(yīng)該走的正確路線，在確保不影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)，兼顧股市的健康穩(wěn)定上漲；</p><blockquote class="imghidden"><h1><u>綜上，A股大幅調(diào)整降溫的原因，個(gè)人認(rèn)為有兩點(diǎn):其一是市場(chǎng)對(duì)于下半年資金面不確定性的擔(dān)憂；其二是管理層拒絕瘋牛和杠桿牛，對(duì)股市進(jìn)行一定程度上的打壓降溫</u>。</h1><p>回答寫到這里，歡迎大家留言交流！</p></p></blockquote></div> <div id="hmdipxl" class="mt24"> <div id="6lxhyqh" class="user-info "> <div id="g2siqpo" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/713.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="7ksf6zr" class="user-details"> <a>逗你玩10610471</a> <div id="aoj6ag3" class="-flair"> <span id="ymlw7oz" class="reputation-score">255贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="qn2le7z" class="answer"> <div id="t6tkpn2" class="post-layout"> <div id="vbe7tnr" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="hm7trbw" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="xo3ijhx" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">6</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowDownLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 10h32L18 26 2 10z"></path> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div id="a6p1ujv" class="answercell post-layout--right"> <div id="hback1n" class="s-prose js-post-body"> <p>這一周時(shí)間對(duì)于不少股民朋友而言，真的非常艱難，最近半個(gè)月才后知后覺入股投資的朋友基本都是盈利悉數(shù)回吐，還倒賠了 3% - 5% 的本金。</p><p><br/></p><p>明明大家都在喊“牛市來了”，各路大咖、分析師也跑出來給 A 股加油打氣，為什么 5 年等一回的牛市這么快就降溫了呢？</p><p><br/></p><p>上周四那波 5% - 6% 的回調(diào)可是讓重倉(cāng)的朋友嚇傻了眼，不少朋友一天虧了幾個(gè)月工資，心痛地只能關(guān)燈吃冷面...</p><blockquote class="imghidden"><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><h1>牛市中的 A 股為什么“畫風(fēng)突轉(zhuǎn)”？</h1><p><br/></p><p><strong>（1）缺乏經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面的支撐</strong></p><p><br/></p><p>股市被稱作是“<strong>實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的晴雨表</strong>”，雖然走勢(shì)未必完全一致，但基于經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面的股市走牛才是健康、穩(wěn)定的。否則就會(huì)催生泡沫，演變成 2015 年那樣的“割韭菜行情”。</p><p><br/></p><p>股市缺乏基本面的支撐這是毋庸置疑的，肺炎還沒有結(jié)束，洪水又來了，可謂是一波未平一波又起。不少工廠企業(yè)還沒有開工幾天，廠房都被淹了，機(jī)臺(tái)進(jìn)水都要報(bào)廢了，損失肯定不小。</p><p><br/></p><p>經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)雖然在穩(wěn)步向好，但很明顯完全恢復(fù)去年同期水準(zhǔn)還需要不少時(shí)間。所以實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的狀況并不容樂觀，官方統(tǒng)計(jì)的失業(yè)率也超過 5% ，<strong>多達(dá)四千萬的人員登記失業(yè)</strong>...</p><p><br/></p><p>實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的狀況并不樂觀，股市的表現(xiàn)想要好起來，當(dāng)然非常困難。</p><p><br/></p><p><strong>聰明人早就在減持跑路了：半年內(nèi)上市公司大股東減持高達(dá) 3000 億，涉及公司多達(dá) 1500 家！</strong></p><p><br/></p><blockquote><p>據(jù)wind數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，在2020年以來，截至7月10日，A股上市公司的重要股東已減持股數(shù)高達(dá)225.98億股，總套現(xiàn)金額已超過3116.99億元，較2019年同期大幅增長(zhǎng)105%，涉及上市公司數(shù)量多達(dá)1525家。</p></blockquote><p><br/></p><p>散戶蜂擁接盤的時(shí)候，往往也是大行情即將走到終點(diǎn)的標(biāo)志。</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><strong>（2）短時(shí)間內(nèi)漲幅過大，市場(chǎng)獲利回吐的意愿強(qiáng)烈</strong></p><p><br/></p><p>3 個(gè)月時(shí)間，上證指數(shù)從 2646 點(diǎn)反彈至 3214 點(diǎn)，反彈幅度達(dá)到 <strong><u>21.47%</u></strong> ，單從技術(shù)面上說，確實(shí)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了牛市周期。</p><p><br/></p><p>不過在經(jīng)濟(jì)大環(huán)境仍舊處在不確定性之下，獲利頗豐的機(jī)構(gòu)、游資、大戶和部分散戶都有獲利止盈、落袋為安的沖動(dòng)。</p><p><br/></p><p>頭腦清醒一點(diǎn)的投資者都知道，現(xiàn)在行情逆勢(shì)大漲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是非常之高的，與其冒險(xiǎn)去博取更高的投資回報(bào)，不如盡早落袋為安，將浮盈安安穩(wěn)穩(wěn)轉(zhuǎn)為現(xiàn)金來的靠譜。</p><p><br/></p><p>大量的獲利資金外流，必然會(huì)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)調(diào)整的出現(xiàn)。</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><strong>（3）清理配資、杠桿，釋放風(fēng)險(xiǎn)</strong></p><p><br/></p><p>行情一妖起來，就會(huì)有很多膽大的投資者利用配資和杠桿加碼下注，這部分資金的進(jìn)入對(duì)于市場(chǎng)而言無疑會(huì)形成巨大的上漲助推力，但是在瘋狂之下也會(huì)加速資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫的產(chǎn)生！</p><p><br/></p><p>成也杠桿，敗也杠桿。</p><p><br/></p><p>想要市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期、穩(wěn)步走牛，清理配資和杠桿，讓市場(chǎng)回歸理性是非常有必要的。資金是逐利的，好說好話是不會(huì)聽的，只有用“血的教訓(xùn)”才能有力地清理掉這些“定時(shí)炸彈”。</p><p><br/></p><p>而大幅度的回調(diào)，顯然對(duì)于清理配資和杠桿有著立竿見影的作用。</p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><p><br/></p><h1>總結(jié)</h1><p><br/></p><p>這次的“牛市”是無路可去的資金扎堆進(jìn)入導(dǎo)致的，為了應(yīng)對(duì)肺炎，央行釋放了太多的流動(dòng)性，印刷了天量的鈔票，這些錢總得有一個(gè)去處。</p><p><br/></p><p>實(shí)體企業(yè)還在苦苦掙扎，房地產(chǎn)高壓調(diào)控，也只有尚且低估的股市可以容納這么多的資金進(jìn)入。</p><p><br/></p><p><strong>行情是否可以定義為“牛市”，還是有待于商榷的，至少，上漲不會(huì)太持久，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)明顯要高于盈利預(yù)期。</strong></p><p><br/></p><p>且漲且珍惜，后續(xù)大盤普漲的行情應(yīng)該不會(huì)太多見。</p></p></blockquote></div> <div id="f2xw3zj" class="mt24"> <div id="o7s1v2u" class="user-info "> <div id="2yyprx1" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/556.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="epkbcqy" class="user-details"> <a>美麗的神話2235</a> <div id="eyh2jxw" class="-flair"> <span id="whpveoo" class="reputation-score">375贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="nl1uqfi" class="answer"> <div id="nypudnv" class="post-layout"> <div id="h11qvlt" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="ufi6p7s" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="ifnk7xy" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">7</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> 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<p>我認(rèn)為，市場(chǎng)急速降溫主要還是管理層不希望看到瘋牛，想要一個(gè)慢牛行情！</p><p>進(jìn)入7月，市場(chǎng)利用幾天時(shí)間先是沾上3000點(diǎn)，然后就是一路扶搖直上，站上了3458點(diǎn)，突破了壓制A股三年之久的大壓力，短短幾天時(shí)間，9個(gè)交易日，滬指大漲了15%，這完全就是瘋牛的行情，于監(jiān)管層想要完全不一樣。</p><p>這次監(jiān)管層給出了幾個(gè)降溫的利空，先是清理倉(cāng)位配資，然后就是郭嘉隊(duì)的減持，對(duì)于清理倉(cāng)位配置，我覺得，主要還是受到15年杠桿牛的影響太大，15年的杠桿實(shí)在是太瘋狂，市場(chǎng)泡沫巨大，經(jīng)過這幾年的去杠桿，場(chǎng)外的杠桿資金都很低調(diào)，隨著近期的市場(chǎng)大熱，場(chǎng)外資金也是在度瘋狂起來，為了避免重蹈覆轍，將場(chǎng)外配資扼殺在萌芽里，也不讓這幾年去杠桿的努力白費(fèi)！慢慢的走出長(zhǎng)牛慢牛行情！</p><p>現(xiàn)在很多人認(rèn)為牛市已經(jīng)結(jié)束了，但是我不這么認(rèn)為，我認(rèn)為，牛市依舊還是處于第一到第二階段的過渡期，全面牛市并未真正的開始，監(jiān)管層這種治理長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的規(guī)劃其實(shí)是長(zhǎng)期利好市場(chǎng)的，從周末的幾個(gè)人利好，鼓勵(lì)券商合并、整理金融亂象等這些都是長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的利好，我覺得，這個(gè)時(shí)候大家不必過度悲觀，股市依舊長(zhǎng)期向好，而且真正的全面牛市還未開啟，現(xiàn)在依舊是潛伏優(yōu)質(zhì)股的好時(shí)期！<br/></p></div> <div id="niyquzt" class="mt24"> <div id="adyfvgl" class="user-info "> <div id="rcbpl76" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/547.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="7xnxogd" class="user-details"> <a>紫諾90</a> <div id="lbrop2l" class="-flair"> <span id="1adpgst" class="reputation-score">443贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="c7njxlr" class="answer"> <div id="siuffyv" class="post-layout"> <div id="i17mj2u" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="fqyeuxt" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="lvpjt7l" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">8</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowDownLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 10h32L18 26 2 10z"></path> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div id="sm3pzat" class="answercell post-layout--right"> <div id="jucm7vk" class="s-prose js-post-body"> <p>所謂牛市是“專家”吼出來的，散戶使勁往里沖，莊家、大股東、包括社保資金都使勁賣、減倉(cāng)�，F(xiàn)在全球疫情越來越嚴(yán)重，中美已經(jīng)全方位戰(zhàn)斗，世界有很多不確定性。如果股市直線上漲，來一波所謂的”大牛市” ，一旦外部環(huán)境繼續(xù)惡化，經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)變差，股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可想而知。我個(gè)人覺得，中國(guó)股市在2500點(diǎn)至3500點(diǎn)之間玩耍，對(duì)股民、機(jī)構(gòu)、政府等，都是好事。牛市后都是一地雞毛，老股民都記憶猶新，想想都恐怖。我在3400點(diǎn)就減倉(cāng)了，越漲越賣，所以前幾天的大跌我沒有跟上，上周五尾盤我打了兩層底倉(cāng)，小賺了點(diǎn)，最近一段時(shí)間最多四層倉(cāng)，來回做T，我個(gè)人的判斷是震蕩小伏向下，走圓弧底。沒有大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，也不宜空倉(cāng)。股市有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。</p></div> <div id="sxwzhov" class="mt24"> <div id="2wzb1kd" class="user-info "> <div id="vyc6t2c" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/731.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="mxw71ou" class="user-details"> <a>額河詩(shī)韻</a> <div id="l1rz12v" class="-flair"> <span id="2lkeso6" class="reputation-score">299贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="agz2rxx" class="answer"> <div id="vlxrjrt" class="post-layout"> <div id="1bzsop7" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="rvpewvb" class="js-voting-container d-flex jc-center fd-column ai-stretch gs4 fc-black-200"> <button class="js-vote-up-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowUpLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 26h32L18 10 2 26z"></path> </svg> </button> <div id="7nwdtfl" class="js-vote-count flex--item d-flex fd-column ai-center fc-black-500 fs-title">9</div> <button class="js-vote-down-btn flex--item s-btn s-btn__unset c-pointer "> <svg class="svg-icon iconArrowDownLg" width="36" height="36"> <path d="M2 10h32L18 26 2 10z"></path> </svg> </button> </div> </div> <div id="o7lc131" class="answercell post-layout--right"> <div id="jmhzleo" class="s-prose js-post-body"> <p><p>這次下跌調(diào)整很正常。因?yàn)橐呀?jīng)連續(xù)上漲很多天了。場(chǎng)內(nèi)資金和場(chǎng)外大量資金涌入不停推高指數(shù)，其實(shí)早就應(yīng)該下跌調(diào)整了。</p><p>這是下跌調(diào)整，也創(chuàng)造了購(gòu)買的機(jī)會(huì)。特別是那些在底部低價(jià)放量?jī)?yōu)質(zhì)的還沒有拉升的股票。</p><p>這次連續(xù)上漲，也是為中芯國(guó)際成功上市募集資金營(yíng)造氣氛。在中芯國(guó)際上市前。也帶動(dòng)了大量的科技股上漲。在中芯國(guó)際上市首日收陰線，也帶動(dòng)了大量的科技股向下調(diào)整。</p><p>總之這次調(diào)整還算是健康的。也是有利于以后的行情發(fā)展。</p></p><blockquote class="imghidden"></p></blockquote></div> <div id="urq171t" class="mt24"> <div id="fzzotvb" class="user-info "> <div id="vxxei8j" class="user-gravatar32"> <img src="/images/face/576.jpg" alt="" width="32" height="32" class="bar-sm" /> </div> <div id="cfkyzwl" class="user-details"> <a>成思初</a> <div id="il2syd1" class="-flair"> <span id="wd61aka" class="reputation-score">291贊</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="6cbkcha" class="answer"> <div id="simonl1" class="post-layout"> <div id="ehyiqs1" class="votecell post-layout--left"> <div id="ltrgkut" 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